In 2008, when the global banking industry was being shaken by the tremors of the unfolding financial crisis, only one bank in India felt the aftershocks, and this, only because one of its overseas subsidiaries had made an opportunistic bet on debt issued by the failed investment bank Lehman Brothers. While the market valuations of all the leading banks in India slipped as equity prices tumbled, their businesses were not affected and their balance sheets remained healthy.
Most domestic commentators continue to hold up this episode as evidence of the inherent strengths of the Indian banking industry and have lauded the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank and banking regulator, for sticking with its conservative approach. When regulators around the world were loosening their grasp over the banking and financial services industry, RBI steadfastly held on to the strings that prevented banks in India from making risky investments and following highly aggressive business practices.
Though some of the country’s younger banks have fast growing asset management and insurance businesses, the industry’s bread and butter is still industrial lending. Asset Backed Securities and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations are still unheard of in the country, while Indian lenders warmed up to the idea of teaser rate mortgages only after the global financial crisis. So far, they do not appear to be any worse for it.
The Indian banking industry is also well capitalized and capital ratios are above the global average. The average tier-1 capital adequacy ratio of the Indian banking industry is above 10%, when compared to the Basel III norm of 8.5% including the contingency buffer. The average total capital of banks in India stood at 14.5% as of March 31, 2010, compared to the Basel III requirement of 10.5%.
However, it can also be argued that the cautious regulatory controls have stifled the growth of the banking industry in India. This is the sector with the most entry barriers as the RBI has not issued new banking licenses for well over a decade. Foreign shareholdings in domestic banks are restricted and foreign banks have to wait years to get permission to start banking operations or expand their network. Except for a few cases where the large banks were encouraged by the RBI to acquire failing banks, the industry has not seen any meaningful consolidation.
As a result, while India continues to move up the ranks of the largest economies in the world, most Indian banks are significantly smaller than their global counterparts. They are no match to even banks in other emerging economies like China, and only one bank from India is ranked among the global top-100 in terms of asset size. Also the cost of financial intermediation is relatively high in India and banks enjoy wide net interest margins. Access to banking services is poor across vast areas of the country’s rural hinterlands and as a result, more than 40% of the population does not have bank accounts and only about 15% have received some form of bank credit. The World Economic Forum currently ranks India 37th out of 55 countries in financial development, behind other large emerging economies like China, South Africa, and Brazil.
Banking regulation remains cautious
As in most countries, the central bank is entrusted with the role of banking regulator in India and the Reserve Bank of India is widely acknowledged as an efficient, but cautious regulator. The government still drives the broader policy framework for the industry, including setting the limits for foreign investments in the sector.
While the Indian government has opened up most sectors of the economy to foreign investors over the last two decades, it has been more guarded about banking and financial services. Accordingly, the aggregate foreign investment limit in domestic private banks increased from 49% to 74% only in 2004, but it remains at a low 20% in banks where the government is the major shareholder. The limit covers all investments by foreigners, including portfolio investments.
In addition, the RBI has other restrictions that are aimed at ensuring wider distribution of bank shareholding. Investments exceeding 5% of a bank’s equity capital by a foreign investor require RBI approval, and a single foreign investor cannot hold more than 10%. These restrictions have also been progressively applied to the domestic shareholders of the smaller private banks, but some of the larger and healthier banks have been given specific exemptions. Further, no bank can hold more than 5% of the shares of another bank, except when a bank on the verge of failure is acquired.
The limits on foreign investment do not apply to foreign banks starting a subsidiary or branch network, wholly-owned by the promoting bank. Like regulators in some other countries, in granting new banking licenses, the RBI often favours applicants from countries that have favourable policies for Indian banks seeking to open overseas branches or expand existing ones. As a result, it may take several years for a new foreign aspirant to get a license. More than a dozen applications from foreign banks for banking licenses now await RBI approval, including well-known names like Goldman Sachs. The RBI has also been careful when allowing new branches for existing foreign banks, but the number of branches approved has always exceeded India’s WTO commitment of a dozen new branches a year.
What’s more, the RBI also has policies to direct bank credit to sectors that are deemed socially or economically important by the government. Accordingly, all domestic banks are required to lend at least 40% of their total net credit outstanding to exporters, farmers, small businessmen, and low-income borrowers. For foreign banks, the requirement is lower at 32% of net credit. Limited deposit
insurance is available to customers of all banks, including foreign banks.
Though it influences the credit policies of the banking industry through specific lending requirements, the Indian government generally has less sway over banks when compared to select other emerging economies like China. By and large, banks in India do not boost or curtail credit flows at the government’s bidding. Though the government occasionally encourages the banks to increase credit availability, as it did during the global financial crisis, even the government-controlled banks are not forced to comply. This apparent autonomy, though limited in many ways, has allowed most Indian banks to follow prudent credit standards and prevent excessive bad loan losses. However, there have also been cases of banks being pushed to the verge of failure by corruption and political manipulation.
Some of the leading banks have also occasionally disagreed with regulatory policies and guidance, though the senior officers of all government-controlled banks are appointed by the government with the consent of the RBI. For instance, the State Bank of India recently refused to withdraw its teaser rate mortgages from the market though the RBI repeatedly expressed its dislike for such loans.
Consumer credit to drive future growth in banking
Like in most other emerging economies, the share of consumer credit remains very low in India, despite the recent growth. Average income levels are still very low and subsistence spending takes away most of the personal incomes of the lower income groups. This leaves very little earnings surplus available for debt servicing and reduces their creditworthiness, and banks will be hesitant to lend to them. Hence, the marketing efforts by banks to promote consumer finance products and services are now mostly limited to cities and towns where there is a larger concentration of higher income customers.
However, as average income levels are expected to rise further, the number of potential bank customers with sufficient earnings surplus will also grow. Though the growth of income levels is likely to be measured and the potential loan size will remain small, the aggregate market size for consumer credit will become larger because of the large population size. This market will be made more attractive by India’s demographic advantage of a relatively young population, who are likely to see faster income growth. Besides, younger customers are generally considered to be more receptive towards new financial products and services.
Even in business banking, India may continue to offer attractive growth opportunities. The ratio of total business credit to GDP in India is less than half the level in China. While this gap mostly reflects the substantially larger industrial sector in China, it also indicates the potential credit requirement if Indian industry sustains its growth. Bond markets remain grossly underdeveloped in India, while exchange risks reduce the attractiveness of international bond markets to domestic borrowers. Hence, it is likely that most of the increased industrial credit requirements will have to be financed by banks.
However, it is also widely accepted that the Indian banking industry may find it difficult to achieve its potential without further regulatory initiatives. It is evident that without increased competition, financial intermediation costs will remain high and banking services will not spread widely across the vast rural areas of the country. Also, to improve efficiency and compete better, it is believed that domestic banks in India need to build scale through consolidation. As past reports and policy statements by the Indian government and the RBI have made repeated references to these issues, it is hoped that entry barriers will come down in the banking sector and restrictive policies will be diluted. It is expected that the shareholding and investment norms will be further liberalized, while new banking licenses will be made available to both domestic players and foreign banks.
The government and the RBI have already announced a new policy framework to issue new banking licenses to domestic applicants. While the RBI is expected to maintain its preference for wider shareholding distribution in banks, corporations with good reputation and track record that have large public shareholdings, may also be allowed to promote new banks. Confirming the attractiveness of the Indian banking sector, it has been reported that nearly a dozen applicants, including some of the most prominent business groups, are eager to acquire licenses.
The banking sector is one of the most crucial sectors in any economy, and plays an instrumental role in promoting economic growth. In India, the sector is even more important as the expansion of banking services to rural areas may also play a significant role in reducing poverty and ensuring sustainable income levels. If favourable regulatory support is ensured, India will likely have a mature banking industry with sufficient scale and reach to support its fast growing economy.
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